社会保险基金投资体制“2011改革”无果而终的经验教训与前景分析

由于社会保险基金规模逐年扩大,保值增值的压力也越来越大.虽然基本养老保险基金投资体制“2011改革”无果而终,但其基本经验告诉人们,改革总比不改革要好;“2011改革”的主要教训就是,投资体制改革本来属于专业问题和技术范畴,但却遭遇了媒体炒作,在互联网时代,非专业化的网络表达方式占据了上风,扭转了改革进程.作为一个压力测试,“2011改革”的主要经验是需要处理好五大关系,即在现行统账结合的基本养老保险制度保持不变的条件下,要建立中央统一运行的市场化投资管理体制,首先要处理好中央和地方的关系;其次要处理好宏观经济与地方稳定的关系;再次要处理好投资收益和参保人权益的关系;第四,要处理好诸多方面政府和市场的关系;最后要处理好相关的各个法律关系.在党的十八届三中全会“全面深化改革”的战略部署下,养老保险实行名义账户制（NDC）是大势所趋,但由于种种原因,在现收现付的融资方式下仍需建立一个基金投资体制;与“2011改革”所不同的是,当前面临的形势发生了根本变化：省级投资模式有可能成为此轮改革的主流,这无疑将固化统筹层次低下的制度弊端.因此,省级投资模式是最不利的可选模式.从改革前景来看,无论此轮改革采取哪个投资体制模式,都离不开建立养老基金管理公司这个选项.

Lessons and Experiences of the Fruitless Reform of Social Insurance Fund Investment Regime in 2011

As the size of basic social insurance funds have been expanding year by year, the pressure for fund management intensifies accordingly. Although the reform of basic pension fund investment in 2011 （2011 reform） had aborted, it can be seen as a profitable test. The main lesson of 2011 reform lies in that the obstacle of media hype reversed the reform process, which being a professional and technical area, suffered the objection of non-professional voices as a result of the Internet age. On the other hand, the main experience of 2011 reform illustrates that, to establish a centralized and market-oriented fund investment regime under current combined basic social insurance system, the following issues have to be addressed properly： the relationship between central government and local governments, the relationship between macro-economy and local stability, the relationship between investment return and participants＇ benefit, the relationship between government and market, as well as relevant various legal relationships. According to the strategy of ＂comprehen- sively deepening reform＂ proposed on the Third Plenary Session of CCP＇s 18th congress, the transition to No- tional Defined Contribution （NDC） model is an inevitable trend for basic pension system. Due to various reasons, it remains necessary to establish a fund investment regime under PAYGO financing model. However, compared with the 2011 reform, current situation has changed fundamentally, i.e., a provincial investment model may become the main stream of this new round of reform, which may solidify the defects of low pooling level and prove to be an inferior choice. Whichever regime of fund investment to be chosen, setting up specialized pension fund management companies should be an indispensable option.