资产价格与最优货币政策选择——基于金融状况指数视角

选取2000—2013年的季度数据，利用金融状况指数（FCI）作为资产价格的代理变量，对考虑资产价格和未考虑资产价格的货币政策反应函数进行实证检验，结果发现，后者估计的反应函数系数偏大，导致社会福利函数损失增大。因此，中央银行不仅要考虑通货膨胀和产出缺口，还应该考虑资产价格，而金融状况指数作为资产价格的代理变量，对未来通货膨胀有较准确的预测能力，并对经济发展具有先导作用，因此央行可以借此来判断中国金融状况并进行反应。

A Study on Asset Prices and Optimal Monetary Policy --From the Perspective of Financial Condition Index

The paper selects the quarterly data dating from the year of 2000 to 2013 and makes empirical tests on monetary policy reaction function with and without consideration to asset prices, which have the Financial Conditions Index （FCI） as the proxy variable. The results have shown that the latter reaction function coefficient is much too large, thus resulting in the increased loss from social welfare function. Therefore it is believed that the central bank should reflect on not only the inflation and output gap, but also the asset prices. The Financial Conditions Index as proxy variable of asset prices boasts of the comparatively accurate capacity of predicting the possible inflation in the future and guiding the economic growth, with the help of which the central bank is able to make judgments on China＇s financial situations and then make corresponding reactions.