我国肉牛生产与农业机械化释放效应分析

我国养牛业长期受到农业生产的束缚，改革开放之后，政府放开养牛业，产业得到快速发展。新中国成立以来，我国肉牛产业可划分为三个时期，即“原始肉牛业时期”、“传统肉牛业时期”和“现代肉牛业时期”，养牛业历经“役用”、“兼用”乃至“肉用”的历史进程。基于农业机械化对肉牛产业发展的释放作用，借助面板VAR模型分析了农业机械化对肉牛生产的影响。研究结果表明：农业机械化对我国肉牛生产的推动作用非常明显；“传统肉牛业时期”及过渡时期肉牛生产受农业机械化的影响比“现代肉牛业时期”更大；非粮食主产区受影响比粮食主产区稍大，但持续时间相对较短。

Study on Beef Cattle Production and its Influence on Agricultural Mechanization in China

Beef cattle industry has been constrained by the agricultural development for a long time.After the reform and opening up,the government loosened its hold on the cattle industry,which makes the beef cattle industry get rapid development.Since the founding of new China,beef cattle industry could be divided into three periods: preliminary period,traditional and modern periods.The beef cattle industry also goes through draft cattle,working meat and meat orientation processes.Based on the influence of agricultural mechanization substitution on beef cattle industry,this paper analyzes the influence of agricultural mechanization on beef cattle production by using panel VAR model.The result shows that the influences of agricultural machinization on the beef cattle production are very obvious.The influence of agricultural mechanization on the beef cattle production during the period of tradition and transition was much larger than that during the modern period.Non major grain producing area is slightly affected than the major grain producing area,while the duration is relatively short.