开放人口分要素预测法细节处理技术

分要素预测法能为社会经济发展规划提供不可或缺的全面详实的未来人口资料,但预测的环节、需考虑的因素多尤其是在某些细节方面很难把握。整个预测过程分为五个步骤,三个分变量的预测分解为水平预测和模式预测,在预测的每个环节上有多种方法可供选择,在参数的设置上更具有很大的技巧性。

The Detail Treatment Technique to Predict Open Population by Key Factors

The indispensable overall and accurate materials of future people for social economy development plan can be offerd by the prediction method of key factors, but more taches and factors are needed, especially some details are too difficult to treat. The pre- diction process is divided into five steps , and the three variables prediction can be divided into level prediction and mode predic- tion. There are many kinds of methods to be chosen on each tache, and it is flexible in the establishment of the parameter.