The dynamics of social exclusion

Much mainstream analysis of the dynamics of social exclusion is concerned with the changing circumstances of households, using panel and cohort studies. However, changes in these circumstances are mediated by institutional processes and can be adequately explained only if the interactions of institutional and household strategies are taken into account. This is also a precondition of sound inferences for policy. These interactions may involve feedback loops and cumulative change: these require analysis as dynamic systems. The article explores how such dynamic systems can be modelled. It proposes a toolkit that brings together qualitative and quantitative modelling techniques, checks them against empirical data and roots their interpretation within an action frame of reference.