Modelling changes in dimensions,health status,and arboricultural implications for urban trees

Canberra, the capital of Australia since 1911, has been developed into a modern city from its original site on a nearly treeless plain. Today the city has about 300,000 inhabitants and 500,000 trees. The authors were requested by the managers of the urban public tree resource to survey their asset and to develop a computer-based system that would aid them in anticipating future maintenance requirements and its costs. This paper reports on our response. We have surveyed 3,000 streets and parks in the city, noting the species, number, and condition of every public space tree. We have also obtained the dimensions of sample trees, noting their total height, maximum crown width, height of maximum crown width, diameter at maximum crown width, and height at crown break. A management system has been developed using Microsoft Access^TM.Using standard regression techniques available on the package JMP^TM, we found that total tree height was related to age for all species and that all other parameters of interest were related to height or transformed values of height. We assumed a sigmoidal growth curve and calibrated 114 height/age curves to cover the 165,000 trees of the 340 species we have in our database. As well we used the data on tree condition to determine the rate at which populations change from healthy to stressed.By interviewing foremen and supervisors we were able to determine the maintenance treatments carried out in Canberra, the equipment used, and the number of trees that can be treated in a day, for each type of operation.The management system can be used to display the current inventory for each street or park, by suburb, in the database. It can also be used to model future increases in size or crown condition, to predict the operations that will be required as a consequence of tree growth or crown deterioration, and finally, by applying multipliers to equipment and personnel, to estimate the future costs of tree maintenance. Managers can use the system to anticipate problems such as uneven expenditure requirements in future years.