河北省被征地农民养老保险替代率的测算与分析

河北省被征地农民基本养老保险制度自2005年颁布以来,根据缴费方式及待遇领取的不同,可以将其分为"精算型"被征地农民养老保险制度和"低保型"被征地农民养老保险制度。根据这两种制度缴费方式及养老金待遇调整的特点,构建了两种制度下养老保险替代率的精算模型,结合灰色预测模型GM(1,1)及计量经济学的原理对相关数据进行处理,并分别用石家庄市和秦皇岛市数据进行两种精算模型的实证分析,得出从长期看"低保型"被征地农民保险制度设计的养老金替代率水平要高于"精算型"的替代率的结论,根据模型分析结果给出结论及相关建议。

A Calculation and Analysis on the Replacement Rate of the Pension of Security System for Land-expropriated Peasants in Hebei Province

Since the pension of security system for land-expropriated peasants in Hebei province has been promulgate in 2005,according to the diversity of paying the fee and receiving pension,it can be divided into "Actuarial-Type" and "Minimum Standard Type" of the pension of security system for land-expropriated peasants.This paper builds the replacement rate of pension actuarial model under the two systems.Combining the gray prediction model GM(1,1) and econometric knowledge of the relevant data processing,and using actuarial data for empirical analysis of the model in Shijiazhuang and Qinhuangdao City,it has been concluded that from the long term,"actuarial-type" system for land-expropriated peasants is lower than "Minimum Standard Type" of the replacement rate of the conclusions.Finally,the paper gives conclusions and recommendations according to the model analysis.