我国老工业基地碳排放影响因素研究

采用我国48个老工业基地37个工业行业2006—2012年的数据，核算其碳排放量及变化趋势，并运用LMDI方法从区域和行业两个层面分析碳排放的影响因素，研究发现：老工业基地能源消费还是以煤炭消费为主；从地区层面看，行业规模和能源结构是影响碳排放的主要拉动因素，行业结构和行业能源强度是影响碳排放的重要制约因素；从行业层面看，行业规模对37个行业的碳排放均表现出拉动作用，能源强度对7个行业的碳排放起到拉动作用，能源结构对28个行业的碳排放量具有拉动作用。应适度控制工业行业规模，优化行业结构及能源消费结构，加快技术进步。

Study on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Chinese Old Industrial Bases

By using the data of 37 industrial industries of China’ s 48 old industrial bases during 2006?2012, the carbon emission amount and its changing trend are calculated, the influencing factors of the carbon emission are analyzed from such two levels as regions and industries by using LMDI method, and the research finds that coal is the main energy consumption in old industrial bases, that the mainly driving factor affecting the carbon emission is industrial scale and energy structure from the perspective of regional level, that the important restriction factor affecting the carbon emission is industrial structure and industrial energy intensity, and that industrial scale has driving effect on the carbon emission of 37 industries while energy intensity has driving effect on the carbon emission of 7 industries and while energy structure has driving effect on the carbon emission of 28 industries. China should moderately control industrial industry scale, optimize industrial structure and energy consumption structure and accelerate technical progress.