中国非正规经济规模的实证研究

 文章首先利用简单现金比率模型对我国地下经济规模进行了实证估测，在研究过程中我们发现部分年份存在非常规的估计结果。为解决这一问题，本文对模型的各种假设条件进行了详细的讨论，分析结果表明现代交易形式的急剧变化是引起奇异值的主要原因。通过对模型进行校正，本文得到了更符合实际的地下经济规模估测结果。我们的研究显示，中国改革开放以来的地下经济规模变化呈现“双驼峰”形态，最高规模与同期官方GDP的比值曾超过30%，尽管近期其发展趋势相对变缓，但绝对数量非常庞大，应引起足够重视。

Empiricial Study on the Size of the Informal Economy in China

This paper investigated the size of informal economy in China using CD model and obtained the abnormal outcome. The analysis shows that the rapid change of transaction instrument is the main reason. Through adjusting the model, this article gets more practical results. According to economic reality in China, the distribution of the size of China’s informal economy since 1978 is bimodal and absolute quality has exceeded 30% of GDP in certain years. The research has evident significance for policy making.