上海人口规模增长与城市发展持续性

近年来,随着大城市外来人口的增长,我国部分学者特别是政府决策管理人员对控制大城市人口规模增长呼声日高,甚至已把控制人口规模增长作为实现大城市可持续发展的重要战略.我国大城市人口规模增长是否已成为影响城市可持续发展的制约因素?本文以我国最大城市上海为例,多角度地系统考察和分析了改革开放以来上海人口规模增长与城市发展持续性的关系,发现上海人口规模增长与城市发展持续性总体上是相互促进、互动发展的.而且相对受到严格控制的户籍人口规模增长,受控较弱、相对强势的常住人口的规模增长与城市发展持续性具有更密切的正向互动作用关系.也就是说,本文研究证明:到目前为止,人口规模增长仍是促进我国大城市实现可持续发展的积极因素,或至少没有明显的证据说明人口规模增长已制约我国大城市的可持续发展.

The Population Growth and the Sustainability of Urban Development in Shanghai

Nowadays,with the increasing of immigration in big cities,some of the Chinese scholars and government policy-makers are inclined to the view of controlling the population of metropolis;furthermore,they even take the population-control policy as an important strategy to realize the sustainable development in big cities.Has the population growth become the restriction of sustainable development? This paper takes Shanghai for example and answers this question.The author analyzes the relations between population growth and Shanghai's development since the reforming and opening-up through multiple facets and finds: Shanghai's population growth and its development are actually in an interactively promoted way,especially the resident population,which has been grown rapidly,becoming an impetus to Shanghai's economic development.This paper demonstrates that up till now,population growth is still a positive factor to metropolis's development;at least no remarkable evidence shows that the population growth has restricted the development.