婚姻挤压、民生支出与强奸犯罪

本文首次从理论上同时考察了婚姻挤压对强奸犯罪的诱发效应,民生支出对强奸犯罪的抑制效应,并采用1990—2012年时间序列数据对其进行了实证检验.研究发现:(1)婚姻挤压、民生支出与强奸犯罪具有协整关系,具体地说,当婚姻挤压上升1%,强奸犯罪增长0.004%;民生支出上升1%,强奸犯罪减少2.43%.(2)脉冲响应函数和方差分解还显示,从长期来看,婚姻挤压对强奸犯罪的诱发效应实则有限,民生支出对强奸犯罪的抑制效应却更大和持久.上述发现具有重要的政策启示:一方面,政府要多措并举,更加综合有效地治理出生性别比失衡问题;另一方面,改善民生比单纯治理出生性别比失衡更有效,政府应及时调整财政支出结构,持续扩大民生支出占财政总支出的比例.

Marriage Squeeze, Expenditure on Peoples Livelihood and Rape Crime

This article analyses how both marriage squeeze and expenditure have impact on rape crime and uses 1990-2012 time-series data to empirically test the consequence. We find: (1) Marriage squeeze, expenditure on peoples livelihood and rape crime have cointegration relation. When marriage squeeze rises 1%, and rape crime will rise 0.004%; when expenditure on peoples livelihood rises 1%, and rape crime will drop 2.43%. (2) Impulse response function and variance decomposition reveal that in the long term marriage squeeze has a limited impact on rape crime, but expenditure on peoples livelihood has a bigger and longer impact on rape crime than marriage squeeze does. These evidences provide policy enlightenments: on the one hand, the government needs some comprehensive policy tools to control the unbalanced birth proportion on genders. On the other hand, it is more effective for the government to pay more attention to peoples livelihood area by changing financial structure than changing gender proportion. The government should in time adjust financial expenditure structure and continue to enlarge the proportion of peoples livelihood to total financial expenditure.