POLITICS IN MULTIPARTY CONTEXT: MULTIPLICATIVE SPECIFICATIONS, SOCIAL INFLUENCE, AND ELECTORAL CHOICE

Explanations of electoral choice most frequently focus on theisolated characteristics of voters and examine those characteristicsusing linear, additive formulations. We explore two alternatives.We first argue that in a multiparty electoral context, the structuringinfluence of ideology on the vote often will be best representedwith a multiplicative specification. Second, we contend thatthe impact of individual-level traits such as ideology willbe moderated by the political climate of the voter's socialcontext. We test these alternative formulations using data concerningthe 1989 elections in Honduras, where two major parties andtwo minor parties vied for support. Multinomial logistic regressionresults demonstrate that a multiplicative and contextual specificationsubstantially outperforms a more conventional modeling strategy.