| 基于BP神经网络误差修正的ARIMA模型对河北省入境游客量的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹德文,张春梅,袁建林,刘燕.基于BP神经网络误差修正的ARIMA模型对河北省入境游客量的预测[J].河北职业技术师范学院学报(社会科学版),2009(4):115-119. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹德文 张春梅 袁建林 刘燕 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]河北科技师范学院科研处,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]河北科技师范学院工商管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]河北科技师范学院学报编辑部,河北秦皇岛066004 |
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| 基金项目： | 河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目“河北省旅游市场趋势预测研究”（S080219）. |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了影响河北省入境游客量的因素，如旅游资源、区位、管理和营销能力等，在此基础上，对入境游客量的时间序列预测方法及回归分析预测方法等做了比较分析，提出运用ARIMA时间序列方法预测河北省入境游客量，并利用BP神经网络方法完成对河北省入境游客量预测数据的误差修正，得出符合河北省实际的入境游客量预测模型，预测的结果表明所得基于BP神经网络误差修正的ARIMA模型是可行的、有效的，得出的河北省实际入境游客量是比较准确的、合理的。
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| 关 键 词： | 河北省入境游客量 ARIMA模型 BP神经网络 |
Forecast of Inbound Tourists to Hebei Province Based on ARIMA Model that Uses BP Neural Network to Correct Error |
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| Institution: | Zou Dewen , Zhang Chunmei, Yuan Jianlin, Liu Yah (a. Division of Scientific Research, b. College of Business Administration,c. Editorial Department of Journal, Hebei Normal University of Science ＆ Technology, Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004, China) |
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| Abstract: | The article first analyzes the factors that influence the tourist volume of Hebei province, such as tourist resources, location, administrative and marketing abilities. On the basis of that, the time sequence prediction method and regression analysis prediction method of landing tourist number are analyzed comparatively. It is put forward that using ARIMA to forecast the tourist number of Hebei province is more accurate, and by using BP neural network method to correct the error obtain the result of the tourist volume of the Hebei province indicates that this approach is feasible and effective. |
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| Keywords: | the tourist volume of the Hebei province ARIMA model BP neural network |
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