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Computation of multivariate normal probabilities with polar coordinate systems
Abstract:We consider the problem of evaluation of the probability that all elements of a multivariate normally distributed vector have non-negative coordinates; this probability is called the non-centred orthant probability. The necessity for the evaluation of this probability arises frequently in statistics. The probability is defined by the integral of the probability density function. However, direct numerical integration is not practical. In this article, a method is proposed for the computation of the probability. The method involves the evaluation of a measure on a unit sphere surface in p-dimensional space that satisfies conditions derived from a covariance matrix. The required computational time for the p-dimensional problem is proportional to p2·2p?1, and it increases at a rate that is lower than that in the case of the existing method.
Keywords:cumulative distribution function  polyhedral cone  orthant probability  polar coordinates  recursive integration
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