区域发展中的能源-经济-环境复杂系统

能源、经济和环境问题紧密地耦合在一起是区域发展面临的主要问题。在分析了区域能源-经济-环境复杂系统自组织特征的基础上,探讨了该系统与外部环境之间、子系统之间和子系统与外部环境之间的相互关系以及内部协调发展机制等。以某市为例,建立了“工业用煤-环境-经济”系统演化模型,且在政府重视程度为1.6的条件下,得到环境综合指数和区域经济协调度最高以及工业总产值较大的结论,并在此条件下,预测未来年度指标值。

Energy-Economy-Environment Complex System in Regional Development

The coupling of energy,economy and environment is a major problem of regional development. This paper demonstrates the relationship and harmony between subsystems, subsystem and environment, system and environment depending on the serf-organization characteristic of regional energy-economy-environment (3E) complex system. A case study was made in one city in China and an "industrial coal consumption-environment-economy" evolution model was set up. When the value of governmental attention is 1.6, we get the highest comprehensive environmental quality index, regional environmental economy harmony degree, and the second-best total industrial production value. Furthermore, we can forcast the values of these indices in the future years under the same conditions.