京津冀地区人口迁移特征及其影响因素分析

本文描述了1990年以来京津冀地区在人口迁移的活跃程度和空间分布的新特征。通过建立计量模型,对1990年和2000年影响京津冀地区人口迁移的综合因素进行了比较分析。结论显示:人均GDP差距已经成为影响人口迁移的首要因素,市场化水平、产业结构对人口迁移的影响力在逐渐上升。针对京津冀地区人口迁移可能存在的问题和影响,本文对京津冀地区未来的人口发展战略提出了相关政策建议。

The Characteristics and Influence Factors of Migration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

This paper describes new characteristics of the population migration,esp.spatial patterns of it and the features of population dynamics,in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region since 1990s.An econometric model has been employed for further analysis of and comparison between the factors influencing the migration in 1990 and those influencing the migration in 2000.The empirical results show that the disparity of per capita GDP has dominantly influenced the migration.Meanwhile,market and the upgraded industrial structure begin to show their muscles.Finally,some countermeasures have also been proposed in this paper.