南中国海地区安全形势研究

2009—2011年南海安全形势呈现出"抛物线"式的发展特点。区域内南海问题当事国违背《南中国海各方行为宣言》的单方面举措和区域外南海问题国际化趋势的迅速增强是南海地区局势恶化的主要原因,而中国等有关争端方的努力则成为局势趋向缓和与稳定的重要因素。同时,随着地区内非传统安全合作机制化的加深,地区非传统安全形势相对好转。然而,由于区域内、外消极因素及非传统安全威胁仍然存在,南海地区安全形势或将继续维持时而紧张、总体缓和的特点。

A Study on the Security Situation of South China Sea

The security situation of South China Sea in the peroid 2009-2011 can be characterized by a parabola.That series of actions against the DOC by some Southeast Asian parties to the dispute and the sharp trend of the internationalization of the South China Sea Dispute accounts for the deterioration of the security situation of South China Sea.At the same time efforts on the part of China and other parties to the dispute’s efforts make the situation ease and stabilized.However,because of the furtherance of the non-traditional security cooperative mechanism,non-traditional security situation in the area correspondingly improved.However,due to the existence of negative element and non-traditional security threats in and out of the area,security situation of South China Sea will go on to be featured by easing on the whole and being interlaced with sporadic tension.