上海服务业供需非均衡与江浙沪服务业关联——基于非均衡模型和跳跃式回归方法的分析

本文在非均衡模型框架下,采用跳跃式回归方法,探讨了上海服务业的总体供需非均衡状况以及上海与江浙两省在服务业发展上的相互关系。本文的基本结论是:上海本地工业的发展对其自身服务业发展具有负面效应,而江浙两省的工业发展对上海服务业的影响却都是正面的;上海与江浙两省在服务业方面的关系是合作与竞争并存,但相对而言,上海与江苏的竞争更为明显,而上海与浙江的合作则相对突出;上海与浙江之间以及上海与江苏之间在服务业方面的结构差异程度远高于江浙两省之间的结构差异程度;上海服务业供过于求的趋势日益明显,预示着上海产业结构的特色与优势正在偏向“都市型”经济。因此,上海应坚定不移地发展服务业尤其是生产者服务业,上海的“都市型”经济功能不仅要服务于其自身,而且要服务于长江三角洲地区乃至全国。

Unbalance in Shanghai Service Market and Its Relations with Zhejiang and Jiangsu Service Industry: An Analysis Based on Unbalance Model and Switching Regression

In the framework of unbalance model, and with a switching regression method, this paper explores the unbalance status quo in total supply-and demand in Shanghai service industry, as well as its relations with Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces in the development of theirs. The author concludes that (1) the development of the local manufacturing industry in Shanghai has a negative effect on the development of Shanghai service industry, while the manufacturing industries in Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces do have a positive effect on it. (2) The relationship between Shanghai and Zhejiang-Jiangsu in service industries is simultaneously cooperative and competitive. But comparatively speaking, a competition dominates in the relationship between Shanghai and Jiangsu, while cooperation dominates in the relationship between Shanghai and Zhejiang. (3) the structural difference in service industry between Shanghai and Zhejiang, as well as Shanghai and Jiangsu, is much higher than that between Jiangsu and Zhejiang. (4) The trend of supply over demand in Shanghai service industry is daily obvious, which indicates that the specialty and superiority of industrial structure in Shanghai is deviated to a "metropolitan" economy. Therefore, Shanghai should steadily develop its service industry, especially the manufacturers' service industry. Its function of "metropolitan" economy must serve not only itself, but also the Yangtze River Delta and even the whole country.