Condorcet's jury theorem,dependency among jurors |
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Authors: | Sven Berg |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Statistics, University of Lund, P.O. Box 7008, S-220 07 Lund, Sweden |
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Abstract: | With the aid of a simple discrete probability model, the Condorect Jury Theorem is extended to situations where there is dependency between judgement. It is shown that negative intra-voter correlation improves on jury competence in the sense that the probability of a correct decision increases. Positive correlation, on the other hand, tends to decrease jury competence. The results given here are obtained with the aid of simple recursion relations. |
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