多哈农业谈判:取消出口补贴的影响分析

由于出口补贴对世界农产品贸易的严重扭曲,2001年11月WTO第四届部长级会议发表的《多哈部长宣言》,明确要求“削减并力争取消所有形式的出口补贴”,建立严格的出口补贴纪律,出口补贴成为多哈农业谈判的核心问题。经过WTO成员艰苦努力,各方在2005年12月召开的WTO香港部长会议上,终于就在2013年前取消所有出口补贴达成一致。本文拟在评估WTO乌拉圭回合农产品出口补贴规则执行效果的基础上,根据WTO香港会议成果,应用计量模型模拟分析取消出口补贴的可能影响。

Agricultural Negotiations in Doha: an Analysis of the Impact of Canceling Export Subsidies

Because of the serious distortion, made by export subsidies, of international trade of agricultural products, the "Doha Declaration of Ministers" issued by the Fourth Conference on a Ministerial Level of WTO held in November, 2001, unmistakably requires cutting and striving to cancel all forms of export subsidies, and the establishment of rigorous discipline about export subsidies. Export subsidies became the key problem for Doha agricultural negotiation. By WTO members' hard working, all parties concerned finally made an agreement that all export subsidies should be canceled before 2013 at the conference on a ministerial level held in Hong Kong in December 2005. In this article, we will, on the basis of the evaluation of the effect of execution of the rules formulated in the Uruguay round of WTO for export subsidies for agricultural products, according to the achievements made at the Hong Kong Conference of WTO, and by means of simulation by the econometric model, analyze the possible impact of the cancellation of export subsidies.