山东省对外贸易的碳排放效应研究

综合运用计量方法和LMDI方法,研究了1994~2012年山东省出口贸易与碳排放之间的关系.研究表明山东省出口贸易与碳排放之间存在长期协整关系,碳排放随出口贸易增长而增长,弹性值为0.566;出口贸易规模增大是碳排放增加的格兰杰原因;山东省出口贸易的碳排放量变化是由出口规模、出口结构和生产技术共同作用的结果.出口规模的扩大是导致碳排放量上升的主要原因,而技术进步是减少出口贸易碳排放的重要因素,虽然出口贸易结构调整尚未对山东省起到碳减排的效果,但是出口结构呈现出明显向清洁化方向转型的良好势头.

Carbon Emission Effects of Foreign Trade in Shandong Province

The relationship between export trade and carbon emissions of Shandong Province during 1994 to 2012 was studied by applying the methods of econometric and LMDI. The results showed that there was a long-term cointegration relationship between export trade and carbon emission. Carbon emission grew with export trade growing and elasticity value was 0. 566. Export trade was the Granger cause of carbon emission. The com-bined effect of export scale,export structure and production technology led to changes in carbon emissions of export trade in Shandong Province. The scale effect was positive while technique effect was negative. Although structural adjustment of export has not played for reducing carbon emissions of Shandong Province, export structure has shown a good momentum in the direction of significant transition to cleaner.