Integrating Uncertainty and Interindividual Variability in Environmental Risk Assessment |
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Authors: | Kenneth T Bogen Robert C Spear |
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Institution: | Environmental Sciences Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California 94550. |
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Abstract: | An integrated, quantitative approach to incorporating both uncertainty and interindividual variability into risk prediction models is described. Individual risk R is treated as a variable distributed in both an uncertainty dimension and a variability dimension, whereas population risk I (the number of additional cases caused by R) is purely uncertain. I is shown to follow a compound Poisson-binomial distribution, which in low-level risk contexts can often be approximated well by a corresponding compound Poisson distribution. The proposed analytic framework is illustrated with an application to cancer risk assessment for a California population exposed to 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane from ground water. |
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Keywords: | Uncertainty interindividual variability health risk models |
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