我国“十一五”各省区节能潜力分析

内容提要：本文基于历史序列的分析，提出了区域经济-能源消耗的“学习曲线”，运用30个省区1990-2005年的时间序列数据，建立了万元产值能耗随人均国民生产总值（GDP）增加而逐步下降的能源学习曲线，并分析并计算了“十一五”期间不同省区万元产值的节能潜力和在全国总节能目标中的分担率。结果显示：（1）山西、甘肃以及贵州等省区的万元产值的节能潜力较大，而福建、浙江、广东、江苏、北京等省区较小；（2）结合各省区经济总量和能源消耗，山东、山西、河北、辽宁等能耗大省和广东、江苏、浙江、上海等经济强省节能贡献大分担率高，而海南等省区，由于经济规模小而节能贡献相对较小，从而给出我国“十一五”期间万元产值节能潜力和节能贡献分担率的地区分布格局。

Study on Learning Curve and Energy-saving Potentials of Various Provinces for the 11th Five-year Plan in China

In the 11th five-year plan,a target of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010 has been set.The realization of the magnificent goal has important significance to lower energy consumption and improve air quality.Based on the analysis of historical sequence,this paper puts forward "learning curve" of regional economy-energy consumption,and then according to time series data of 30 provinces from 1990 to 2005,"learning curve" of energy intensity and per capita GDP has been built.Based on this theory curve,energy-saving potentials of per 104$ energy consumption and area sharing rate during the 11th five-year plan period have been analyzed and calculated.