广东省西江北江流域热带气旋的长期预报

通过对广东省内西、北江洪水长期预报，发现某些预报的洪峰出现时间，恰好与影响该省的各场热带气旋吻合．影响西、北江形成洪水的热带气旋不会遗漏，而不影响西、北江流域的热带气旋在预报图中不反映出来．从而探索出在做洪水长期预报的同时，又可作出对热带气旋的登陆时间、地点、风力等级和大致灾害程度的预报．

A Long-term Forecast Model of Tropical Cyclones in the West River and the North River Basins of Guangdong

After the work of long-term flood forecast for the West River and the North River, the author has found that the emergences of tropical cyclones are in the same time with some flood peaks in these areas. In a year all the tropical cyclones effected floods in these areas can be mirrored in the longterm flood forecast model, moreover, the others do not. With this result, the author achieved a researching way of predicting the tropical cyclones and the long-term floods for a area meanwhile.