基于情景分析的未来人力资源经理胜任力研究

本文试图运用情景分析技术来解决未来组织需要什么样的人力资源经理这个难题。预测时间轴选择为五年,有三个关键因素深刻地影响着人力资源经理的胜任力,分别是组织文化的特点、管理职能、组织中所处管理层次的高低。文章从这三方面入手分析了关键外部力量,得到三个不确定轴面,分别是新技术新理论的发展、主体员工的变化、劳动力市场供求关系变化。由此构建了未来五年我国人力资源经理面对的最乐观、最悲观和最可能的情景,分别是黄金时代、萧条时代和丛林时代。然后,测量了在这些情景下人力资源经理胜任特征的重要性程度,相对目前状态下的可能变化,以帮助人们更好地认识未来人力资源经理的胜任特征。研究结论有助于区分出未来导向和非未来导向的人力资源经理胜任力,从而帮助招聘和培训适合未来需要的人力资源经理。

A Study of Future HR Manager's Competency Based on the Scenario Analysis Technique

Under the market economic system,especially during the transition economic period,more and more organizations recognize the importance of the human resource managers.Some enterprisers with the strategic view pay the high salaries for the qualified human resource managers to let them be the strategic partner by exploring,using and integrating the human resource in the organization.However,what kind of human resource managers do organizations need in the future? This study tries to resolve the problem by usin...