影响农村剩余劳动力流动的机理研究

2009年以来,中国农村剩余劳动力“无限供给”的观点被“民工荒”现象逐步推翻,其诱因是“结构性的不协调”,是制度性歧视抑或是中国的“刘易斯拐点”真的已经到来?为理清这一问题,结合Logistic二元回归模型进行了经验分析.通过实证研究发现,外出务工收入低、农村社会保障制度的建立和逐步完善以及农村金融体制和信用制度的改革是导致农村剩余劳动力拒绝外出务工的主要原因.有鉴于此,一方面,政府在下一步的招商引资工作中,不能再利用低廉的劳动力成本来吸引投资者;另一方面,政府应逐步建立和完善流动人口特别是外来务工人员的社会保障及其转移接续制度.

The Flow Mechanism Effect Research on Rural Surplus Labor

Since 2009,China’s rural surplus labor" infinite supply" view was gradually reversed " by laborer barren" phenomenon,which the cause is" structural mismatch",the system of discrimination or Chinese" Lewis turning point" has really come? To clarify this issue,we will survey data in combination with Logistic two element regression model to study the impact of the current labor market supply pattern undertook experience.Through empirical analysis,we found that low income of migrant workers,the gradual improvement and setting up of rural social security system,the rural financial system and credit system reform is the main reason.In view of this,this paper argues that,on one hand,the government,in the next capital attraction job,cannot take advantage of the cheap labour cost to attract investors.On the other hand,the government should gradually establish and improve the flow of population,especially the migrant workers’ social security and its subsequent transfer system.