中国CO2排放变动的结构因素分析——一个包含贸易结构的分解模型

利用投入产出方法测算出2002-2007年度中国隐含碳排放总量和分部门的排放量,并应用结构分解法研究了排放强度、生产技术、国内需求结构、贸易结构和经济规模五个因素对隐含碳排放变动的影响.研究结果表明,排放强度和国内需求结构的变动是碳排放量减少的主要原因,生产技术、贸易结构和经济规模对碳排放量的增加有显著影响.从部门结构上看,贸易结构因素反映了中国对外贸易分布特征的变化,与其他影响因素相比贸易结构的变迁对碳排放量的影响最小;另外,虽然直接碳排强度明显下降,但受碳排强度因素和生产技术因素共同影响的完全碳排强度却几乎没有变化,反映出能源政策在各部门的实际效果受到生产技术的影响.

A Structural Decomposition Analysis on Change of Embodied Carbon Emission in China:an Structural Decomposition Analysis with Trading Structure

This article computes the CO2 emission volume of China during 2002-2007,using input-output analysis.The paper also analyzes the source and change of the emission volume,based on structural decomposition analysis.The paper finds that there are five factors affect the carbon emission.Among which the change of emission intensity,domestic need are the main reason of the decrease of emission,while production technology,trading structure and scale effect increase the emission volume.From the emission data from sectors,we find the changes in trading structure,which give the proof of polluted heaven.Comparing with other factors,trading structure has the least affection on the carbon emission.We also find that although the direct emission intensity decrease during the study period,the complete emission intensity remains unchanged,which reflect the result of energy policy is not equal in different sectors.