| 灰色GM(1,1)幂模型初始条件的组合优化 |
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| 引用本文： | 王正新,党耀国,裴玲玲. 灰色GM(1,1)幂模型初始条件的组合优化[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2012, 27(6): 55-59 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王正新 党耀国 裴玲玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江师范大学 经济与管理学院,浙江金华,321004
2. 南京航空航天大学 经济与管理学院,江苏南京,210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，全国教育科学“十一五”规划青年课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对GM(1,1)幂模型求解初始条件的优化问题,提出一种基于原始序列新旧信息的线性组合优化方法.在模拟误差平方和最小化的目标下,构建初始条件组合权重的优化模型,给出最优组合权重的解析式.最后以中国高中升学率的数据为例,验证了此优化模型的有效性和优越性.结果表明初始条件优化方法能够有效地平衡新旧信息的权重,并提高GM(1,1)幂模型的模拟和预测精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM(1,1)幂模型 初始条件 组合优化 |
Combinatorial Optimization of the Initial Value in GM(1,1) Power Model |
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| WANG Zheng-xin , DANG Yao-guo , PEI Ling-ling. Combinatorial Optimization of the Initial Value in GM(1,1) Power Model[J]. Statistics & Information Tribune, 2012, 27(6): 55-59 |
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| Authors: | WANG Zheng-xin DANG Yao-guo PEI Ling-ling |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China;2.College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the optimization problem of the initial value in GM(1,1) power model,this paper puts forward a linear combinatorial optimization method based on new and old information of original sequence.A combinatorial optimization model for the weights of initial values is constructed with the objective of minimum simulation error sum of squares.The analytical expression of the weights of initial values is proposed.Finally,the superiority and effectiveness of the new methods is illustrated by the data of the promotion rates from senior secondary schools to higher education in China.The results show that the initial condition optimization method proposed in this paper can effectively balance the weights of old and new information and improved the simulation and prediction accuracy of GM(1,1) power model. |
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| Keywords: | grey system GM(1,1) power model initial value combinatorial optimization |
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