伊朗介入中东地区事务的动力及限度

近年来,伴随中东变局的演化以及伊朗与域内外国家间关系的复杂变化,代理人战争成为伊朗地区战略的重要政策工具。为应对不同对手,伊朗在海湾地区、阿拉伯半岛南部和地中海东岸地区分别扶持不同的代理人,并形成了三个次级战略板块。伊朗推行代理人战争的动力主要包括通过代理人战争制衡与掣肘美国、以色列、沙特等全球及地区对手;巩固与扩大本国在中东地区的战略影响力;避免与对手直接开战,实现以最低成本获取最大化收益的战略目标。然而,受代理人能力与战略意愿的改变、国内政局以及民众支持度变化、对手反制和新冠疫情等因素的影响,伊朗推行代理人战争存在明显限度,代理人战争的效果不应被过度夸大。

Iran's Involvement in Middle East Affairs Impetus and Limitation

In recent years,with the evolution of the Middle East transition and the deterioration of relations among relevant countries,proxy war has become an important policy tool for Iran's regional strategy.In response to different regional rivals,Iran has supported different agents in the Gulf region,the southern Arabian Peninsula and the Levant region on the east coast of the Mediterranean,and formed three sub strategic plates.The impetus of Iran's agent war mainly comes from three aspects:counterbalancing and restricting the global and regional opponents such as the United States,Israel and Saudi Arabia through the agent war;consolidating and expanding Iran's strategic influence in the Middle East through the proxy war;avoiding the direct war with the opponents through the proxy war,reducing the need for costs,and trying to maximize the benefits with the lowest cost.However,there are some limitations in Iran's implementation of proxy war,such as the changes of the ability and strategic will of the agent,the changes of the domestic political situation and the public support,the opposition of the opponent and the COVID-19,etc.Therefore,the effect of proxy wars should not be overstated.