金融机构农业信贷投入与农业GDP关系的研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

根据1978-2009年的数据,通过协整检验说明农业GDP与金融机构农业信贷投入存在长期均衡关系,并建立向量自回归模型来考察两者之间的动态影响关系。研究表明,从短期来看,农业GDP的增长来自于两方面,一方面是短期农业信贷投入的影响,另一方面来自误差修正项对短期均衡偏离长期均衡的一种调整。从长期来看,农业GDP和农业信贷投入之间存在稳定的长期相互影响的过程。农业GDP对农业信贷投入扰动的响应小于农业信贷对农业GDP扰动的响应,因此,必须加强政府干预,加大金融支持。

Relationship Between Agricultural GDP and Agricultural Loans---- Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

According to the data from1978 to 2009,Agriculture GDP has a Long-run equilibrium relationship with the agricultural loans by cointegration test,then,We buid a VAR modle to research their dynamic relationship.The results show that.in the short term,the agricultural growth has two reasons:one is Short-term investment in agricultural credit,the other is the adjustmen from Error correction of short-term deviation to the long-run equilibrium of a balance,in the long term,Investment in agricultural GDP and agric...