中国制成品出口的技术结构变迁——基于动态化分类方法的考察

本文使用1985-2006年53个国家人均GDP数据和制成品出口数据,运用动态化分类方法,考察了中国制成品出口的技术结构变迁。本文发现:(1)在过去二十多年中,同其他经济体一样,中国制成品出口的技术结构仍然主要遵循比较优势原则发生变迁;(2)尽管中国制成品出口的技术结构已得到大幅度提升,但是中国目前依然没有摆脱以低技术制成品出口为主导的局面。基于世界制成品出口技术结构的演进规律,本文预计,在未来一段时期内,中国低技术制成品的出口份额将继续下降,中偏下技术制成品的出口份额不会大幅上升,甚至有可能开始小幅回落,中等、中偏上技术制成品的出口份额会表现不俗,高技术制成品的出口份额也会有所提升,但大幅提升的可能性很小。当然,出口技术结构升级的道路并不平坦,依然充满着挑战。

Evolution of Technological Structure of China's Manufactured Exports: Based on the dynamic methods of classification

Using the per capita GDP and manufactured exports data of 53 countries from 1985 to 2006,and employing the dynamic methods of classification,this paper explores the technological structure change of Chinese exports in manufactured goods. We find that:(1) The vicissitude of the technological structure of China's manufactured exports still mainly follows the principle of comparative advantage over the past two decades; (2) Although China's technological structure of manufactured exports has significantly been...