中国对东盟出口贸易额的二元边际研究

为了研究中国出口东盟贸易,采用UN Comtrade数据库HS六位编码数据,根据HK分解法计算出口贸易的二元边际,并运用扩展后的引力模型分析其影响因素。为确保结果稳健性,使用PPML进行检验。研究结论显示:中国出口东盟主要沿着集约边际增长,扩展边际对制造业出口贡献更大。中国经济规模、中新自由贸易区协定的签署对二元边际起促进作用,但是东盟经济规模和贸易自由度会阻碍二元边际的增长。

Research on binary margin of Chinese export trade to ASEAN

In order to study the export trade of China to ASEAN, the HS six-digit code data of UN COMTRADE database are used to calculate the binary margin of export trade based on HK decomposition method. The influence factors of the binary boundary are analyzed by the extended gravity model. The Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood(PPML)method is used to ensure the robustness of the results. The conclusion shows that the Chinese export to ASEAN mainly grows along the intensive margin, and the expanded margin contributes more to the export of manufacturing industry. The size of the Chinese economy and the signing of agreement of China-Singapore Free Trade Area promote the binary margin, but the size of the ASEAN economy and the degree of trade freedom hinder the growth of the binary margin.