治理弱化与财务危机:一个预测模型

本文首先讨论了治理弱化与财务危机的辨证关系;然后在分析13个变量的基础上,运用Logistic回归给出了判别上市公司财务危机的一个模型。这一模型包括四个变量:毛利率、其它应收款与总资产的比率、短期借款与总资产的比率、股权集中系数。其中,股权集中系数是公司治理结构的直接表征,也是本文模型异于其他预测模型的首要区别。本文模型的回判准确率为84.52%,而对2000年新增加的“ST”公司的判别准确率则达到了95.45%。

Governance Weakening and Financial Distress: A Fore-casting Model

The survey discusses the dialectical relationship betweengovernance weakening and financial distress firstly. On the basis offactor-analyzing, we provide a discriminating model of financial distressof the listed companies. Our model includes four factors: marginal ratio,ratio of other accounts receivable to total assets, ratio of short-termliabilities to total assets and ownership concentration coefficient.Ownership concentration coefficient is a direct expression of corporategovernance and is also the dominant difference from other forecastingmodels for financial distress. The accurate rates of our model are 84.52%for -1- year data and 95.45% for the new-added ST companies of2000.