税收政策不确定下资源动态优化开采研究

针对资源税改革时间不确定,探讨了提高资源税对资源开采的影响。根据资源税改革时间把开采过程分为2个阶段,利用动态思想处理资源开采过程,并结合最优控制理论建立了动态优化模型,通过模型的求解得到资源的最优开采路径。结果表明:在开采初期,资源税政策提出的可能性(或资源税率)提高会加快资源的耗竭;在开采后期,则会促进资源保护;转折的时间点与初始储量有关,初始储量的提高会推迟该转折时间的到来。

Dynamic Optimal Extraction of Exhaustible Resources with Un-known Taxes Reform Date

It is impossible to know the date of reforming resource taxes policies exactly.The problem how to extract exhaustible resources effectively under this uncertainty was studied.Resource extraction was divided into two processes,according to the reform date.The dynamic optimal model was built by using the idea of dynamic planning.The optimal model was solved based on optimal control theory.The optimal extraction path was found.The results show that(1) during initial period of resources extraction,resources extraction rate increases by increasing the probability of putting forward resources taxes policy(or increasing taxes rate).In the later date,it will conserve resources;(2) turning point is related with primal stock.Increasing the primal stock can postpone time of the turning point.