高铁开通对安徽省县域经济增长的影响机制研究

高速铁路的出现,加速了人流、物流、资金流等生产要素的流动和重新分配,对于县域经济增长产生重大影响。以安徽省县域作为研究对象,基于2003—2020年安徽省58个县域的面板数据,运用双重差分模型,分析高铁开通对安徽省县域经济增长的影响。研究发现,高铁开通在整体上对县域经济增长产生了显著的正向影响;异质性分析显示,高铁开通对人口大县的经济增长产生了显著的正向影响,对人口小县的经济增长产生了显著的负向影响。影响机制分析表明,劳动力的流失减小了高铁对县域经济增长的正向影响。最后根据结论对安徽省县域经济发展以及未来的高铁规划提供合理的政策建议,助力县域经济快速发展。

Research on the Influencing Mechanism of High-Speed Railway Opening on County Economy Growth in Anhui Province

The emergence of high-speed railroad accelerates the flow and redistribution of production factors such as human, logistics and capital flows, which has a significant impact on the economy growth of counties. Based on the panel data of 58 counties in Anhui Province from 2003 to 2020, the DID model is applied to analyze the impact of high-speed railway opening on county economy growth in Anhui Province. It is found that the opening of high-speed rail has a significant positive impact on county economy growth as a whole; the heterogeneity analysis shows that the opening of high-speed rail has a significant positive impact on the economy growth of counties with large population, but a significant negative effect on the counties with small population. Additionally, impact mechanism analysis demonstrates that the loss of labor force will reduce the positive impact of high-speed rail on county economy growth. Finally, this study provides reasonable policy suggestions for county economy development and future planning of high-speed railway, thus helping to realize the rapid development of county economy in Anhui province.