基于离散选择的技术扩散元胞自动机模型

传统的基于Bass模型的各类技术扩散模型簇并没有有效地刻画采用者收入因素等个人特质的影响，也无法描述消费者中途放弃采用情形下的扩散规律。为此，将离散选择模型引入到创新扩散研究领域，用以研究消费者个人特质对技术扩散进程的影响，并将其与元胞自动机相结合，建立了一个创新扩散混合模型。运用太阳能热水器（SWH）在我国农村地区的扩散情况进行仿真分析，发现模型能够较好地拟合SWH的实际扩散状况并且很好地解释了收入水平等个人特质对扩散进程的影响路径。此外，与传统理论不同，研究还发现扩散进程并不与口头交流信息量呈简单的直线相关关系，而是存在着一个临界值，超过该值后，口头交流对扩散进程的影响力将日益减弱。

A Cellular Automata Model of Technology Diffusion Based on Discrete Choice

The traditional innovation diffusion models which are mostly based on BASS model can't describe the influence of individual personalities, and can't depict the patterns of diffusion in the case that the user abandons the application during the process. For this, this article introduces discrete choice theory into innovation diffusion field to study the influence of personal characters, and combining with cellular automata technology, it builds a hybrid innovation diffusion model. This model is used to simulate the diffusion of Solar Water Heater(SWH)in China's rural areas and it is found that this model can fit the actual diffusion data very well and explain the impact of individual characters on diffusion process. In contrast with the traditional theory, it is discovered that the diffusion speed doesn't display a simple linear relationship correlated to oral communication. Instead, there is a critical value and after this value, the impact of oral communication on diffusion will increasingly decrease.