| 2000——2020年我国各级教育需求预测及建议 |
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| 引用本文： | 石人炳. 2000——2020年我国各级教育需求预测及建议[J]. 南方人口, 2004, 19(2): 13-20 |
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| 作者姓名： | 石人炳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京,100872 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章根据 2 0 0 0年人口普查数据 ,运用人口预测软件对我国 2 0 0 0— 2 0 2 0年各级普通教育阶段在校生人数和教师需求量进行了预测 ,并对未来小学在校生的减少、初中在校生的波动、高中阶段和高等教育在校生的不断增加 ,以及由此引起对教师需求量的变化等提出了对策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 学龄人口 在校生 专任教师 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-1613(2004)02-0013-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-02-24 |
The Future Education Demands of Various Levels in China:2000-2020 |
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| SHI Ren-bing Population and Development Center of Renmin University,Beijing China. The Future Education Demands of Various Levels in China:2000-2020[J]. South China Population, 2004, 19(2): 13-20 |
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| Authors: | SHI Ren-bing Population Development Center of Renmin University Beijing China |
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| Affiliation: | SHI Ren-bing Population and Development Center of Renmin University,Beijing 100872 China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data from China Census 2000, this paper use the pop software and forecasts the school-age population, enrolled students, teachers required of different levels for the period from 2000-2020. Some issues, which may emerge in future such as the decrease of enrolled students in primary school, the fluctuation of the students in junior middle schools, and the increase of students in Senior high school and the institutions of higher education as well as the according requirements for teachers, are discussed and some suggestions are put forward. |
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| Keywords: | School-age Population Enrolled Students Full-time Teachers Projection |
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