World energy resources and the limitations of computer modelling

The views of Meadows and the Club of Rome are challenged in the first part of this article, which reviews available information on world energy reserves. Here the conclusion is reached that the real nature of the energy ‘crisis’ is not one of impending resource exhaustion, but of economic, social and political problems stemming from rising prices and the uneven distribution of world reserves. Part Two takes up the question ‘How far are large computer models likely to be relevant for the formulation of energy policy?’ It concludes that they can be a useful tool for analysing complex relationships and portraying future scenarios, but they should not be seen as a substitute for policy choices.