Three Fertility Compromises and Two Transitions |
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Authors: | John C Caldwell |
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Institution: | (1) Demography and Sociology Program, Research School of Social Sciences, Bldg 9, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia |
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Abstract: | Demographers and those concerned with population policy are increasingly focusing on the steep fertility declines that occurred
in developed countries from the 1960s and the consequent widespread below-replacement fertility levels. The decline has been
termed the Second Demographic Transition. This paper argues that the recent demographic change can best be understood and
analyzed if we broaden the concept to include the first demographic transition, and the three demographically more settled
periods preceding, separating, and following the two fertility transitions. These more settled periods or “compromises” are
examined to ascertain their nature and so to help predict the likely developments in the present or third compromise. It is
argued that the third compromise has now extended for 20 years with little movement in fertility rates or other socioeconomic
behavior which has been said to be associated with the second transition, and that this provides sufficient evidence for analysis.
The approach has two key aspects. First, it is confined in Europe to countries that distinctly experienced the full five demographic
periods, namely northwestern and central Europe. Second, the analysis gains strength by including non-European countries that
progressed through all five stages, namely the English-speaking countries of overseas European settlement: USA, United Kingdom,
Australia, and New Zealand. |
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Keywords: | Below-replacement fertility Demographic theory Demographic transition Population policy Second demographic transition |
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