多个不确定性因素下跨国公司投资策略

利用实物期权方法,在汇率、国内外生产成本和产品价格均不确定的情况下,把跨国企业迁移生产和销售的空间决策柔性(spatial decision flexibility)模型为交换期权,分别给出了迁移生产的最优下界和迁移销售的最优上界、及其迁移决策规则,并讨论了关键参数对迁移决策规则的影响。最后,给出应用迁移生产和销售决策规则的数值模拟算例,体现了本文给出的决策规则在实际应用中具有可操作性。

Multinational Corporations''''Investment Decisions under Multi-Factors Uncertainty

In this paper,using realoption pricing theory,the production of sales delocalization flexibility for multinational enterprises making decisions is modeled as exchangeoptions under exchange rate,labor costs,product of the price uncert ainy.The paper present the optimal super-trigger of production delocalization option,the optimal lower trigger of sale delocalization option,investment decisions' rules,respectively.The paper also discussed the effect of important parameters on the optimal-triggers delocalization productor sales.Finally,numerical calibration of the delocalization decisions' rulesis given in the paper,and show that this delocalization decisions' rules is operatical in application.