2005:通货膨胀还是通货紧缩

2004年中国经济经历了由通货紧缩向通货膨胀的转变。国内粮食价格的上涨、房地产等部分行业投资过热、国际市场石油价格的急剧上涨和投机资本大量流入是引起物价攀升的主要原因。国家对宏观经济的及时调控对物价攀升起到了抑制作用。综合各方面的因素可以预测:2005年上半年物价涨幅将受到有效控制,但通货膨胀压力依然较大,防止价格总水平过快上涨、保持物价基本稳定将是全年宏观调控的重要任务。政府在进行宏观经济调控时应该注意当前通货膨胀的结构性特点,针对不同的产业部门采取不同的鼓励或限制措施。

2005: Inflation or Deflation

In 2004, the Chinese economy went through a transition from deflation to inflation. Causes for inflation include rising cost of domestic grain, overheated investment in real estate, sharp rises of oil on the international market and the flow of large amounts of speculative capital into China. The government's macro-economic measures of adjustment have slowed down the rise of prices. This paper predicts that inflation will be under effective control in the first half of 2005. But inflation pressure will keep growing. Stabilization of prices will remain an important task for the government throughout the year. The paper suggests that the government heed structural characteristics of the current inflation and implements different measures of adjustment in different industries.