The health expectancies of older Australians |
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Authors: | Heathcote Christopher R Davis Brett A Puza Borek D O’Neill Terence J |
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Institution: | (1) Centre for Mathematics and its Applications, The Australian National University, 0200 Canberra, ACT, Australia |
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Abstract: | Health expectancies of the states ‘Disability-free’ and ‘Disabled’ are estimated for Australian females and males aged 60
and over, both by cohort from 1980 and current for survey years 1981, 1988, 1993 and 1998. Modifications of recently developed
logistic regression techniques are used rather than the standard 1971 method due to Sullivan. Results from the three later
surveys are broadly similar and differ in important respects from those of the 1981 survey. Based on the last three surveys
our estimates support the view that, depending on age, two-thirds or more of the increase in female life expectancy over the
decade 1988–1998 is spent in the Disabled state. The situation is worse for elderly men, for whom all of the increased years
of expected life are estimated to be spent in the Disabled state. The findings do not support rectangularization of the survival
curve or Disability-free survival curve. |
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Keywords: | Disability health expectancy logistic regression multistate life tables life expectancy regression analysis Australia |
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