中国股市资金流向对宏观经济的影响

自１９９１年成立证券交易中心到目前 ,中国股票市场已经整整发展了１０年时间。在这段时期中 ,随着股票市场规模的逐步扩大 ,股票市场不仅在国民经济结构中已经占有一席之地 ,更在整个宏观经济的资金流动结构中占有着日益重要的角色。同时由于资金进入股市改变了宏观资金的结构 ,这种结构相应的将影响到宏观经济中各市场主体的行为。本文拟通过对我国股票市场资金流的估算 ,分析进入股市的资金来源和股市中资金的分布结构 ,以勾勒出我国１０年来宏观资金结构的变化;继而分析流入到股市中资金的使用效率 ,从侧面揭示宏观资金的这种变化所暗含的经济效益;最后分析股票市场资金流向引起的这种宏观资金结构变化对宏观经济各主体的市场行为的影响 ,即“财富效应”、企业融资和金融机构资金结构变化等问题。

The Impact of Direction of Capital Flow on China's Stock Market upon the Macro-economy

Ten years have elapsed since China's securities trading center was brought into being in 1991 and the experience of China's stock market has covered the same period, during which,with the gradual enlargement of scale, not only has this market had “a seat" in the “parliament" of the national economic structure, but also it has played an increasingly important role in the structure of capital flow in the national macroeconomy.Meanwhile, on account of capital inflow into stock markets that has changed the macro-capital-structure,this structure will,accordingly, affect the behavior of the main body of various markets in the macro-economy.This paper, by way of the estimation of fund flow in China's stock market, will analyze, first of all, both the source of capita coming into the stock market and the distribution structure of funds in the stock market, so as to depictl China's change in the recent k10 years in the macro-fund-structure; second, the efficiency in using the fund flow into the stock market, so as to bring, indirectly, to light the economic effect hidden in this change in macro-fund; finally, the three impacts of three change(caused by the flow direction of stock markets) in three macro-fund upon the market behavior of the main body in the macro-economy, that is, the “wealth effect", the financing of enterprises, and the change in fund structure of financial bodies.