国内夏粮收购期行情回顾及四季度趋势展望

在分析各界对冬小麦产量分歧的基础上,认为目前产需矛盾诱发行情显著升温,收购量大提振后期调控能力。在市场发展趋势方面,政策依旧是关键影响因素,供需形势仍需要重新评估,相关品种的影响不容忽视,经济趋缓或限制后期涨幅,国际行情难对国内行情传导,后期行情高位趋升幅度有限。认为2012年四季度我国小麦行情将在现有基础上继续上扬,但幅度会有所控制。

A MARKET REVIEW OF SUMMER GRAIN PURCHASE PERIOD AND PROSPECTS OF THE TREND OF THE FOURTH QUARTER

Based on an analysis of differences in winter wheat yield,the paper believes that at present the contradictions between production and demand are significantly inducing quotations on the market and large amount of the acquisition will boost post-regulatory capacity.In terms of market trends,the policy is still the key factor and the situation between supply and demand still needs reassessing.The impact of related species can not be ignored and the economic slowdown is likely to restrict the rate of rising prices at late stage.The international market may have little influence on domestic market and there is limited margin for a rise in high prices at late stage.The paper holds that China’s wheat prices will continue to rise on the existing basis in the fourth quarter but the rate of rise will be controlled.