技术进步对战斗力增长的作用评估——基于生产函数的分析

在信息化战争的条件下,技术进步是战斗力增长的根本动力。将技术进步对战斗力增长的贡献率合理、准确地量化,对优化军费支出结构、提高军费使用效率有着重要的意义。本文以柯布—道格拉斯生产函数和索洛经济增长模型为基础,对评估技术进步对战斗力增长贡献率的模型做了理论上的构建。并利用1989—2004年的统计数据,分别对装备和人力弹性系数进行了回归分析,进而计算得到技术进步对战斗力增长贡献率的实际数据。通过对不同要素贡献率的对比,得出了现阶段我军技术进步的贡献率仍然偏低,需要进一步加大技术投入,使战斗力的增长由数量规模推动转变到质量效益推动的轨道上来。

Evaluation of the Contribution Made by the Technology Advancement to the Development of Force——The Analyses Based oil the Production Function

In the situation of war information-based,the advancement of technology is the basic impetus of the force development.It is of great importance to quantify the contribution made by technology advancement to the development of force reasonably and precisely,and to optimize the structural design of military expenditure and promotion of the military expenditure effectiveness.Based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and the Solow-Swan economic growth model,this article constructs the theoretical model used to evaluate the contribution made by technology advancement to the development of force.Combined with the statistical data during 1989-2004,it uses regression method to analyze the equipment and manpower elasticity coefficient,and then calculate the real data of the contribution made by technology advancement to the development of force.By comparing the contribution rate of the different factors,it concludes that currently the contribution rate made by technology advancement is still at low rate,thus needing to increase technology input further,and make the force develop from quantity increase to quality promotion.