金融危机及经济复苏的经济理论分析

提出一种新的经济理论来解释危机的形成和一个重大危机可能需要很长时间才能恢复的根本原因。市场参与者对收益和损失的不对称的心理反应是造成危机和危机恢复时间慢长而痛苦的主要原因。对经济恢复的三种不同形状：V、U和L进行了定义和解释。在当前的金融危机形势下，一些国家如中国和印度，可能会经历一个V型复苏，而英、美等国则可能是U形复苏。同时，本文还提出了一个重要的反周期性的经济政策，以期降低危机发生的概率以及危机发生后所造成的破坏作用。

On Economic Theory of Financial Crisis and Economic Recovery

There are many studies on financial crisis in the literature but few have suggested a clear economic theory to explain why crises may happen and why economic recovery may take different shapes.This paper presents a new economic theory to explain the formation of a crisis and why a major crisis may take a long time to recover.It suggests that the asymmetric psychological reaction of market players to gains and losses is the principal cause of a crisis and responsible for a prolonging recovery.Three different...