Can migration avert population decline and ageing in East and Southeast Asia?

Fertility is currently below replacement level in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. These low levels are expected to lead to declines in the total population and the number of persons of labour force age. In a report that garnered much attention among policy-makers and the news media, the United Nations Population Division developed the concept of replacement migration. This was defined as the number of international migrants that would be required in order to prevent the declines in the total population; the number of persons of working age; or the potential support ratio (persons aged 15–64 per person aged 65 and over). This paper reviews the hypothetical replacement migration projections for Japan and the Republic of Korea in the United Nations report and examines similar scenarios for China, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, with a brief overview of possible policy implications.