我国未来城镇人口规模及人口结构变动预测

对城镇人口规模和结构变动给予合理预测，有助于政府预估社会的劳动力供给和养老压力，进而制定合理高效的社会保障政策和进行相应政策调整。本文从规范的人口学角度，采用队列要素法通过年龄移算，在考虑城镇人口基数、出生率、死亡率、性别比以及城市化背景下乡城人口的净迁移率等多个参数的情况下，通过编制我国城镇人口生命表．对从现在起至未来2030年的时间内我国城镇人口的规模和结构进行动态预测，从而为我国制定合理而有针对性的城镇人口政策和经济政策提供参考。

Predictions on China's urban population scale and structure

The changes of urban population scale and structure have exerted profound effect on economic development and so- cial life. The rational prediction on the changes of urban population scale and structure has great referential significance for government to pre-estimate social labor force supply and provision for the aged so as to set up reasonable and efficient social security policies and adjust some. The past studies are mainly about the prediction on China＇s future population scale. These studies were mostly conducted in the last century and the data are inconsistent with the real figures. And therefore, it＇s neces- sary for us to modify the prediction. Meanwhile, a few studies that gave prediction on China＇s urban population scale are based on the predictions given by referring to the single urbanization ratio. By adopting the to conduct population estimates by age, this article makes a dynamic prediction on the changes of China＇ s urban population scale and structure from now till the year 2030 from the perspective by considering such parameters as urban population base, fertility, mortality, sex ratio and the urban net immigration rate and preparing urban population life table so that it offers reference for Chinese government to set up rational and targeted urban population and economic polices.