Probabilities and beliefs |
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Authors: | Edi Karni |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 21218-2685, Baltimore, MD
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Abstract: | Choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities originated with the work of Ramsey and de Finetti and attained their definitive form in the work of Savage. These probabilities are intended to provide a numerical representation of a decision maker's beliefs regarding the likely realization of alternative events. In this article, I argue that the choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities involve a tacit convention—namely, state-independent utility functions—that is not implied by the axioms, and, as a consequence, choice-theoretic subjective probabilities, even when they exist, do not necessarily represent the decision makers' beliefs. |
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Keywords: | subjective probabilities beliefs subjective expected utility |
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