社会变迁中性别失衡在中国演化的机制分析

将社会变迁的视角引入性别失衡转变的宏观机理研究,构建了社会变迁影响性别失衡演化的理论模型,并应用于中国30年来的社会变迁和性别失衡转变分析。研究发现,中国出生性别结构失衡的发展态势既非天然线性下降也非缓慢衰减,而是取决于未来社会环境多因素的互动,直接决定性别结构变动的环境因素转换符合短板理论;中国性别失衡的演变过程呈现阶段性特征:在制度改革探索阶段,家庭联产承包责任制实施和新技术引进导致出生性别比偏高;经济发展阶段,人口流动和家庭体系瓦解弱化了男孩偏好;社会结构转变阶段,阶层分化与贫富差异扩大使得男孩偏好获得了新的支撑;指出如果中国社会阶层分化问题持续恶化,那么性别失衡的转变过程会比学界预想得更为复杂和曲折。

An Analysis on Mechanism of Gender Imbalance Evolution in China in Social Change

Introducing the perspective of social change into the study on the macro mechanism of gender imbalance,we construct a theoretic model for the evolution of gender imbalance affected by social changes,and apply it to analyze the social changes and gender imbalance transformation over the past 30 years.From the studies we discover that the state of the development of the structural imbalance of the birth gender in China,instead of neither a natural linear fall nor a slow attenuation,hinges on the interaction among multiple elements of the future social environment,and the environmental element transformation directly determining the change in gender structure agrees with the short plate theory.The process of the evolution of gender imbalance in China is characterized by its stage nature that at the stage of system reform exploration,the implementation of the contracted responsibility system based on the household with remuneration linked to output,and the introduction of new technology lead to a higher sex ratio at birth(SRB);at the stage of economic development,migration movement and disintegration of the family system weaken the son preference;at the stage of the transformation of social structure,the stratum differentiation and difference between rich and poor cause the son preference to get a new bolster.We hold that if the issue of the differentiation of the social strata in China is consecutively worsened,the process of the transformation of gender imbalance will be more complex and torturous than expected by academic circles.